Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Cubs PHI @ CHC

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

8-16  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Apr 23 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

15-9  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Jose Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Alvarado

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Alvarado None-None 8.64 -- 1.0 1
Javier Assad None-None 5.40 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
8.64 ERA Ldr 5.40
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
PHILLIES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

30.9%

Cubs Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

PHI By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 PHI @ CHC 7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026 PHI @ CHC 2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 PHI @ CHC 4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026 PHI @ CHC 1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 CHC @ PHI 11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.50 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.286 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.724 ▲
OPS
.374
3 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +90.0% more
Chicago: 1.6 vs Philadelphia: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +68.2% more
Chicago: 17.8 vs Philadelphia: 10.6
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Chicago: 1.0 vs Philadelphia: 0.5
Hits (L5) +49.6% more
Chicago: 10.6 vs Philadelphia: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.0 7
CHC Score 6.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.6 / 7.1 18.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.9 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 10.6 30.0 / 18.0
Walks 1.3 / 4.4 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PHI
CHC
PHI
ML
58% 93-68
59% 97-67
51% 82-79
49% 80-84
ATS
61% 97-63-1
65% 107-57
47% 75-85-1
51% 83-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
57% 88-67-9
46% 72-83-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 51 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 59 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 12 hours ago
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago