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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

11-13  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Apr 22 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

8-16  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Nunez

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Nunez None-None 1.46 -- 1.0 2
Alex Lange None-None 7.59 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.46 Ldr ERA 7.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
ORIOLES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Kansas City KC
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.711
OPS
▲ .718
199 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +52.0% more
Kansas City: 6.4 vs Baltimore: 4.2
Hits (L5) +44.0% more
Kansas City: 9.3 vs Baltimore: 6.5
Total Bases (L5) +23.6% more
Kansas City: 14.8 vs Baltimore: 12.0
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.0 8
KC Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 6.5 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.4 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.5 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 12.0 21.0 / 21.0
Walks 6.4 / 4.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BAL
KC
BAL
ML
55% 89-72
53% 83-73
56% 90-70
57% 90-69
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-67
57% 90-68-1
TTL
58% 90-64-7
54% 81-70-5
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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