Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

16-7  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

9-15  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 2.31 -- 1.2 1
Tomoyuki Sugano None-None 3.42 -- 5.2 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.31 Ldr ERA 3.42
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
ROCKIES
0%
PADRES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Colorado)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.9%

Rockies Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u12.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u12.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4400.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +125.0% more
Colorado: 1.3 vs San Diego: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +49.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs San Diego: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +29.2% more
Colorado: 11.4 vs San Diego: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.0 3
COL Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 6.7 15.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 9.6 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 8.9 24.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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