SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
15-7 | Road
1
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
9-14 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brennan Bernardino
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 6.17 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Brennan Bernardino | None-None | 0.87 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.17
ERA
Ldr 0.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
ROCKIES
0%
PADRES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
SD By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.8%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Colorado
8
COLORADO
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925
▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4400.0% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+137.0% more
Colorado: 1.4
vs
San Diego: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+74.0% more
Colorado: 1.0
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+68.8% more
Colorado: 15.7
vs
San Diego: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.0
1
COL Score
8.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 7.0
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 10.4
15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 9.3
3.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.7
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60%
97-64
51%
85-83
55%
88-73
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
91-77
52%
83-78
55%
92-75
TTL
60%
93-62-6
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-78-6
54%
86-74-6
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