PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-14 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
13-9 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 9.82 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.82
ERA
Ldr 2.08
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
CUBS
100%
PHILLIES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PHI @ CHC
7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026
PHI @ CHC
2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026
PHI @ CHC
4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026
PHI @ CHC
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
CHC @ PHI
11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.50
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.286
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.724
▲
OPS
.374
3
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+85.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+54.6% more
Philadelphia: 4.2
vs
Chicago: 1.9
OPS (Season)
+35.0%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+29.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.0
4
CHC Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.2
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 9.6
3.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 9.5
18.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.9 / 4.2
2.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PHI
CHC
PHI
ML
58%
93-68
59%
97-67
51%
82-79
49%
80-84
ATS
61%
97-63-1
65%
107-57
47%
75-85-1
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
57%
88-67-9
46%
72-83-6
51%
78-76-9
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