DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
54-28 | Road
96
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
254.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
21.6%
MIN By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIN By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
129
DENVER
Minnesota
125
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
109
DENVER
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.0
Loss
Proj Total: 254.0
D
Sim
u232.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
Denver: 82.7%
vs
Minnesota: 72.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.9% more
Denver: 47.7
vs
Minnesota: 42.9
Blocks (L5)
+79.1% more
Minnesota: 5.1
vs
Denver: 2.8
Steals (L5)
+13.8% more
Minnesota: 7.1
vs
Denver: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
129.0
96
MIN Score
125.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 36.6
26.0 / 25.0
Assists
26.8 / 29.1
31.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.1 / 2.8
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 47.4
48.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 82.7
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 47.7
53.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.2
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 11.8
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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