PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
41-25-16 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
43-27-12 | Home
5
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
PHI By 1 goal
2.8%
PHI By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+29.0% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5
vs
Philadelphia: 21.7
Takeaways (L5)
+14.5% more
Pittsburgh: 4.6
vs
Philadelphia: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+39.6% more
Philadelphia: 36.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 25.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+32.7% more
Philadelphia: 14.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
2
PHI Score
2.0
5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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