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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

9-13  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

11-13  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Louis Varland None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 --
Sam Bachman None-None 2.63 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.63
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
📊
ANGELS
100%
BLUE JAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

84.1%

Angels Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

19.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

7.8%

LAA By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
TORONTO
3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 LAA @ TOR 6 - 1
May 9, 2026 LAA @ TOR 1 - 14
May 8, 2026 LAA @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 TOR @ LAA 3 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 TOR @ LAA 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.692 ▲
OPS
.679
152
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +46.0% more
Toronto: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Hits (L5) +35.1% more
Toronto: 9.9 vs Los Angeles: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +30.0% more
Toronto: 14.2 vs Los Angeles: 9.9
Strikeouts (L5) +10.5% more
Toronto: 9.9 vs Los Angeles: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 7.0 4
LAA Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 9.9 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 9.9 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 14.2 5.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TOR
LAA
TOR
ML
59% 96-66
46% 74-87
55% 89-73
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 90-71
51% 82-80
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 80-76-5
52% 82-75-5
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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