BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
11-12 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
7-16 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.75 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 5.79 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.75 Ldr
ERA
5.79
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
ROYALS
0%
ORIOLES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
KC @ BAL
2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026
KC @ BAL
1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026
KC @ BAL
3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026
BAL @ KC
8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026
BAL @ KC
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Kansas City
KC
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.718
199
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+64.7% more
Kansas City: 7.1
vs
Baltimore: 4.3
Hits (L5)
+57.1% more
Kansas City: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 5.7
Total Bases (L5)
+27.2% more
Kansas City: 12.8
vs
Baltimore: 10.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
5
KC Score
6.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 5.7
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 10.8
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 10.0
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
7.1 / 4.3
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BAL
KC
BAL
ML
55%
89-72
53%
83-73
56%
90-70
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
58%
90-64-7
54%
81-70-5
54%
83-70-7
51%
78-75-6
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