MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
12-9 | Road
12
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
12-11 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Keider Montero | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00 Ldr
ERA
3.68
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
TIGERS
0%
BREWERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
MIL @ DET
4 - 5
Apr 22, 2026
MIL @ DET
2 - 5
Apr 21, 2026
MIL @ DET
12 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
DET @ MIL
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2025
DET @ MIL
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.743
▲
OPS
.720
154
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+56.9% more
Detroit: 14.6
vs
Milwaukee: 9.3
Hits (L5)
+47.3% more
Detroit: 9.4
vs
Milwaukee: 6.4
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Detroit: 0.8
vs
Milwaukee: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+30.5% more
Detroit: 4.4
vs
Milwaukee: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.0
12
DET Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.4
9.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.6
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 9.3
11.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.3
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIL
DET
MIL
ML
54%
86-73
62%
101-61
54%
87-73
52%
84-78
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
94-68
57%
91-69
48%
78-84
TTL
46%
69-81-9
40%
62-92-8
46%
69-81-10
50%
77-77-8
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