PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-13 | Road
1
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
12-9 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Colin Rea | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 6.2 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.59 Ldr
ERA
3.00
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
CUBS
0%
PHILLIES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PHI @ CHC
7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026
PHI @ CHC
2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026
PHI @ CHC
4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026
PHI @ CHC
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
CHC @ PHI
11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.50
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.286
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.724
▲
OPS
.374
3
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+46.0% more
Chicago: 9.2
vs
Philadelphia: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+40.2% more
Chicago: 15.0
vs
Philadelphia: 10.7
Home Runs (L5)
+28.0% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+85.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.0
1
CHC Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.3
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.3
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 10.7
11.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.8
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PHI
CHC
PHI
ML
58%
93-68
59%
97-67
51%
82-79
49%
80-84
ATS
61%
97-63-1
65%
107-57
47%
75-85-1
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
57%
88-67-9
46%
72-83-6
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…