Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Royals BAL @ KC

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

10-12  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Apr 20 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

7-15  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Nunez

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Nunez None-None 1.59 -- 2.0 1
Alex Lange None-None 8.38 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.59 Ldr ERA 8.38
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
ORIOLES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BALTIMORE
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Kansas City KC
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.711
OPS
▲ .718
199 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +92.2% more
Kansas City: 6.7 vs Baltimore: 3.5
Hits (L5) +16.3% more
Kansas City: 6.5 vs Baltimore: 5.6
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
OPS (Season) +0.7%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.0 7
KC Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 5.6 14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 9.7 14.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 10.0 18.0 / 10.0
Walks 6.7 / 3.5 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BAL
KC
BAL
ML
55% 89-72
53% 83-73
56% 90-70
57% 90-69
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-67
57% 90-68-1
TTL
58% 90-64-7
54% 81-70-5
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 37 minutes ago
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
headtopics 19 hours, 2 minutes ago
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Padres and Brewers: A Friendly Rivalry Rooted in Shared History
headtopics 1 day, 19 hours ago
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 2 days ago