Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Angels TOR @ LAA

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

8-13  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Apr 20 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

11-12  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Rogers

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Rogers None-None 0.79 -- 0.2 --
Reid Detmers None-None 4.08 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
0.79 Ldr ERA 4.08
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
📊
ANGELS
100%
BLUE JAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
TORONTO
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
TORONTO
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 LAA @ TOR 6 - 1
May 9, 2026 LAA @ TOR 1 - 14
May 8, 2026 LAA @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 TOR @ LAA 3 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 TOR @ LAA 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.692 ▲
OPS
.679
152
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +68.0% more
Toronto: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Hits (L5) +38.9% more
Toronto: 10.8 vs Los Angeles: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +27.9% more
Toronto: 15.8 vs Los Angeles: 11.4
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Los Angeles: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 6.0 5
LAA Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.6 / 10.8 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 5.8 6.0 / 18.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 15.8 7.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TOR
LAA
TOR
ML
59% 96-66
46% 74-87
55% 89-73
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 90-71
51% 82-80
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 80-76-5
52% 82-75-5
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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