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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

11-10  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Apr 19 • 4:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

8-12  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Masataka Yoshida
STARTING PITCHER

Masataka Yoshida

#7 | Designated Hitter
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Finnegan None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Masataka Yoshida None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
TIGERS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

77.3%

Red Sox Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.4%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

10.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
DETROIT
2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
7
DETROIT
3
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 0
May 5, 2026 BOS @ DET 10 - 3
May 4, 2026 BOS @ DET 5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
181 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +50.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Boston: 0.3
OPS (Season) +31.1%
Detroit: 72.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.0 6
BOS Score 2.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.7 6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 9.3 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 12.4 12.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
50% 80-80
54% 86-73
47% 76-87
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-67
64% 101-58
48% 79-84
57% 91-69
TTL
46% 72-83-5
46% 69-81-9
47% 74-83-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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