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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

10-10  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Apr 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

8-11  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kenley Jansen None-None 1.59 -- 1.0 --
Greg Weissert None-None 5.40 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.59 Ldr ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
RED SOX
0%
TIGERS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

30.9%

Red Sox Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

DET By 1-2 runs

13.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

7.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DETROIT
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 0
May 5, 2026 BOS @ DET 10 - 3
May 4, 2026 BOS @ DET 5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
181 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +21.9% more
Boston: 3.0 vs Detroit: 2.5
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +31.1%
Detroit: 72.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.0 4
BOS Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.6 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.9 7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 12.1 6.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.5 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
7%MONEY93%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
50% 80-80
54% 86-73
47% 76-87
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-67
64% 101-58
48% 79-84
57% 91-69
TTL
46% 72-83-5
46% 69-81-9
47% 74-83-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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