TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
7-12 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
12-8 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 0.84 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 5.19 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.84 Ldr
ERA
5.19
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TOR @ ARI
10 - 4
Apr 18, 2026
TOR @ ARI
2 - 6
Apr 17, 2026
TOR @ ARI
3 - 6
Jun 19, 2025
ARI @ TOR
9 - 5
Jun 18, 2025
ARI @ TOR
1 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.720
152
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+46.0% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+43.5% more
Arizona: 17.0
vs
Toronto: 11.8
Hits (L5)
+31.1% more
Arizona: 10.3
vs
Toronto: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.0
2
ARI Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 7.8
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.8
7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 11.8
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.4
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TOR
ARI
TOR
ML
54%
87-74
46%
74-87
54%
86-74
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
90-71
56%
89-71
49%
79-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
80-76-5
49%
73-77-9
45%
70-85-5
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