DETROIT
TIGERSDET
10-9 | Road
0
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
7-11 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.25
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
RED SOX
0%
TIGERS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
19.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
9
DETROIT
Boston
10
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 19.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
BOS @ DET
4 - 0
May 5, 2026
BOS @ DET
10 - 3
May 4, 2026
BOS @ DET
5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720
▲
OPS
.409
181
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+58.8% more
Boston: 3.5
vs
Detroit: 2.2
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+77.6% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+38.0% more
Detroit: 1.0
vs
Boston: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
9.0
0
BOS Score
10.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 9.4
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.4
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 15.6
6.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
50%
80-80
54%
86-73
47%
76-87
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-67
64%
101-58
48%
79-84
57%
91-69
TTL
46%
72-83-5
46%
69-81-9
47%
74-83-6
46%
69-81-10
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