GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
37-45 | Road
96
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
45-37 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS
100%
WARRIORS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
18.6%
GS By 8-14 points
26.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
6.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
119
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
106
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Golden State
117
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
122
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.5
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u219.5
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.3% more
Golden State: 27.5
vs
Phoenix: 21.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
Golden State: 79.3%
vs
Phoenix: 68.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Golden State: 49.7%
vs
Phoenix: 47.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Golden State: 37.8%
vs
Phoenix: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
119.0
96
PHX Score
106.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 37.8
37.0 / 33.0
Assists
21.6 / 27.5
23.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.8 / 3.2
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 49.7
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 79.3
100.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
43.8 / 39.2
36.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.0
14.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 16.0
15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
GS
PHX
GS
ML
57%
60-45
55%
95-79
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
101-73
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
77%
134-40
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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