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LOS ANGELES

KINGSLA

35-26-20  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Apr 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

33-39-9  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Anton Forsberg
GOALTENDER

Anton Forsberg

#31 | Goaltender
@
Arsenii Sergeev
GOALTENDER

Arsenii Sergeev

#40 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anton Forsberg None-None 2.05 0.895 --
Arsenii Sergeev None-None 1.00 0.964 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.05 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.895 Save % Ldr 0.964
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
KINGS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Calgary)
KingsLA (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

30.9%

Flames Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

LA By 1 goal

12.1%

LA By 2-3 goals

9.3%

CGY By 1 goal

19.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LOS ANGELES
3
CALGARY
Simulated Score
2
LOS ANGELES
5
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 16, 2026 LA @ CGY 1 - 3
Mar 24, 2026 LA @ CGY 2 - 3
Feb 28, 2026 CGY @ LA 0 - 2
Dec 13, 2025 CGY @ LA 2 - 1
Apr 17, 2025 CGY @ LA 5 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +68.2% more
Calgary: 5.2 vs Los Angeles: 3.1
Faceoff % (L5) +12.5%
Calgary: 59.1% vs Los Angeles: 46.6%
Power Play % (L5) +47.2%
Los Angeles: 48.3% vs Calgary: 1.2%
Hits (L5) +34.1% more
Los Angeles: 20.4 vs Calgary: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LA Score 2.0 1
CGY Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
33%MONEY67%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
LA
CGY
LA
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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