TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
7-10 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
9-8 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 12.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
12.00
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
BREWERS
100%
BLUE JAYS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
19.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
8
TORONTO
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 14, 2026
TOR @ MIL
9 - 7
Aug 31, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 8
Aug 30, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.692
OPS
▲
.743
152
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+32.9% more
Toronto: 4.6
vs
Milwaukee: 3.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.4% more
Toronto: 9.1
vs
Milwaukee: 6.5
Hits (L5)
+18.8% more
Toronto: 8.7
vs
Milwaukee: 7.0
Total Bases (L5)
+13.0% more
Toronto: 12.9
vs
Milwaukee: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
8.0
1
MIL Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.7
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 9.1
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 12.9
9.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.6
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TOR
MIL
TOR
ML
62%
101-61
46%
74-87
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
90-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
80-76-5
50%
77-77-8
45%
70-85-5
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