Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Tigers KC @ DET

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

7-11  |  Road

9
FINAL
Thu, Apr 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

9-9  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 6.14 -- 0.2 1
Tyler Holton None-None 1.23 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.14 ERA Ldr 1.23
-- WHIP --
0.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
ROYALS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Tigers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
KANSAS CITY
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +75.0% more
Detroit: 1.0 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +42.8% more
Detroit: 11.5 vs Kansas City: 8.0
Hits (L5) +32.3% more
Detroit: 7.1 vs Kansas City: 5.4
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Detroit: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.0 9
DET Score 4.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 5.4 14.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 7.3 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 8.0 24.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
KC
DET
KC
ML
54% 86-73
55% 89-72
54% 87-73
56% 90-70
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 69-81-9
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 47 minutes ago
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
si 1 day ago
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 1 day, 23 hours ago
Dodgers Predicted to Re-Sign $32M Ace Tarik Skubal, Keeping Rota…
sportingnews 3 days, 6 hours ago
Tarik Skubal Set for First Home Playoff Start as Dodgers Host Br…
yourvalley_net 5 days, 12 hours ago