TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
7-9 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
8-8 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 0.93 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.93 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
BREWERS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 14, 2026
TOR @ MIL
9 - 7
Aug 31, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 8
Aug 30, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.692
OPS
▲
.743
152
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+82.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.0
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+55.8% more
Milwaukee: 1.9
vs
Toronto: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+28.5% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+5.1%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
1
MIL Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 10.5
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 10.7
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 16.8
5.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.9
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TOR
MIL
TOR
ML
62%
101-61
46%
74-87
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
90-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
80-76-5
50%
77-77-8
45%
70-85-5
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