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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

32-35-14  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

43-27-11  |  Home

3
Goaltending
William Villeneuve
GOALTENDER

William Villeneuve

#76 | D
@
Artem Zub
GOALTENDER

Artem Zub

#2 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
William Villeneuve None-None -- -- --
Artem Zub None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Senators Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

OTT By 1 goal

19.7%

OTT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Senators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Senators (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +62.2%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Toronto: 1.3%
Takeaways (L5) +38.8% more
Ottawa: 5.2 vs Toronto: 3.7
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
Ottawa: 58.7% vs Toronto: 52.8%
Blocked Shots (L5) +55.6% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs Ottawa: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 1
OTT Score 4.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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