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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

86-76  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 12:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

79-82  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Anthony Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Nunez

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Morillo None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
Anthony Nunez None-None 1.04 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA Ldr 1.04
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
📊
ORIOLES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

Orioles Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ARIZONA
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 15, 2026 ARI @ BAL 8 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 ARI @ BAL 4 - 3
Apr 13, 2026 ARI @ BAL 7 - 9
Apr 9, 2025 BAL @ ARI 0 - 9
Apr 8, 2025 BAL @ ARI 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720 ▲
OPS
.711
166
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +64.4% more
Arizona: 4.0 vs Baltimore: 1.4
Hits (L5) +10.7% more
Arizona: 9.1 vs Baltimore: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season) +2.2% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Batting Avg (Season) +1.2%
Arizona: 24.6% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 6.0 8
BAL Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.1 8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 7.4 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 15.5 13.0 / 23.0
Walks 1.4 / 4.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ARI
BAL
ARI
ML
53% 83-73
54% 87-74
57% 90-69
54% 86-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
56% 89-71
TTL
54% 81-70-5
52% 80-73-8
51% 78-75-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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