CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
6-7 | Road
10
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
6-7 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Rolison
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rolison | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
CUBS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
19.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PHI @ CHC
7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026
PHI @ CHC
2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026
PHI @ CHC
4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026
PHI @ CHC
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
CHC @ PHI
11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.374
OPS
▲
.724
0
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+19.4% more
Chicago: 3.9
vs
Philadelphia: 3.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+72.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.6
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
6.0
10
PHI Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.5
8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 9.1
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 14.2
12.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.9
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CHC
PHI
CHC
ML
59%
97-67
58%
93-68
49%
80-84
51%
82-79
ATS
65%
107-57
61%
97-63-1
51%
83-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
57%
88-67-9
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-76-9
46%
72-83-6
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