Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rangers @ Athletics TEX @ ATH

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

7-6  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Apr 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

6-7  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Alexander
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Alexander

#13 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Alexander None-None 0.96 -- 1.1 2
Elvis Alvarado None-None 5.87 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.96 Ldr ERA 5.87
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
RANGERS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Athletics)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TEXAS
6
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .719
183
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Runs per Game (Season) +3.9% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Texas: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.6%
Athletics: 40.2% vs Texas: 39.6%
OPS (Season) +0.6%
Athletics: 71.9% vs Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.0 1
ATH Score 6.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.6 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 9.3 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 14.7 5.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.7 4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59% 95-67
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 92-70
50% 81-80
61% 98-63
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 78-70-14
42% 66-90-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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