MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Road
105
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
54-28 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
12.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
123
MINNESOTA
Denver
114
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
105
MINNESOTA
Denver
108
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.0
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u232.0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.2% more
Minnesota: 8.4
vs
Denver: 5.1
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Minnesota: 7.9
vs
Denver: 6.7
Rebounding (L5)
+34.4% more
Denver: 51.5
vs
Minnesota: 38.3
Assists (L5)
+13.3% more
Denver: 30.9
vs
Minnesota: 27.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
123.0
105
DEN Score
114.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 37.1
28.0 / 32.0
Assists
30.9 / 27.3
27.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.1 / 8.4
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 50.8
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
82.8 / 78.0
91.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
51.5 / 38.3
47.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.7 / 7.9
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.7
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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