ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
8-6 | Road
7
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
6-7 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Loaisiga
#43 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Loaisiga | None-None | 4.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.00
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
ORIOLES
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 15, 2026
ARI @ BAL
8 - 5
Apr 14, 2026
ARI @ BAL
4 - 3
Apr 13, 2026
ARI @ BAL
7 - 9
Apr 9, 2025
BAL @ ARI
0 - 9
Apr 8, 2025
BAL @ ARI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.711
166
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+83.0% more
Baltimore: 1.1
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+28.5% more
Baltimore: 14.9
vs
Arizona: 11.6
Home Runs (Season)
+19.9% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Hits (L5)
+12.9% more
Baltimore: 9.1
vs
Arizona: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.0
7
BAL Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.1
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.3
3.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 8.4
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 11.6
20.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.6
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ARI
BAL
ARI
ML
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
54%
86-74
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-70
57%
90-68-1
56%
89-71
TTL
54%
81-70-5
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-75-6
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
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