TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
7-6 | Road
8
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
6-7 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Medina
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 7.0 | 7 |
| Luis Medina | None-None | 1.35 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 1.35
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
ATHLETICS
100%
RANGERS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.719
183
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+33.0% more
Texas: 4.6
vs
Athletics: 3.1
Home Runs (L5)
+18.4% more
Texas: 1.4
vs
Athletics: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.0% more
Texas: 9.9
vs
Athletics: 8.2
Hits (L5)
+14.6% more
Athletics: 8.5
vs
Texas: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
8
ATH Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.5
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.9
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 12.5
8.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
54%
87-74
57%
91-70
ATS
52%
84-78
57%
92-70
50%
81-80
61%
98-63
TTL
54%
84-73-5
53%
78-70-14
42%
66-90-5
55%
81-66-14
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