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DALLAS

STARSDAL

47-20-12  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Apr 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

32-33-14  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Artur Akhtyamov
GOALTENDER

Artur Akhtyamov

#70 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 5.00 0.815 --
Artur Akhtyamov None-None 6.09 0.844 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.00 Ldr GAA 6.09
0.815 Save % Ldr 0.844
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
STARS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
DALLAS
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 13, 2026 DAL @ TOR 6 - 5
Dec 21, 2025 TOR @ DAL 1 - 5
Jan 14, 2025 DAL @ TOR 4 - 1
Dec 18, 2024 TOR @ DAL 5 - 3
Feb 7, 2024 DAL @ TOR 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.7% more
Dallas: 29.9 vs Toronto: 26.1
Blocked Shots (L5) +71.9% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs Dallas: 16.1
Hits (L5) +32.2% more
Toronto: 22.5 vs Dallas: 17.0
Takeaways (L5) +11.2% more
Toronto: 4.1 vs Dallas: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 6
TOR Score 2.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
61%MONEY39%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DAL
TOR
DAL
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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