MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
8-6 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
5-9 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 0.84 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.84
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
TIGERS
0%
MARLINS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MIA @ DET
2 - 8
Apr 11, 2026
MIA @ DET
1 - 6
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ DET
0 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
DET @ MIA
2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025
DET @ MIA
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.727
▲
OPS
.720
168
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+42.0% more
Detroit: 0.7
vs
Miami: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+7.7% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5)
+65.1% more
Miami: 1.5
vs
Detroit: 0.5
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.0
2
DET Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.8
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.5
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 10.6
21.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIA
DET
MIA
ML
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
54%
87-73
55%
88-72
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
91-71
57%
91-69
54%
86-74
TTL
46%
69-81-9
56%
88-69-5
46%
69-81-10
53%
82-73-5
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