Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Timberwolves NO @ MIN

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

26-55  |  Road

126
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 8:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

48-33  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
PELICANS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

42.1%

Timberwolves Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NO By 1-7 points

26.8%

NO By 8-14 points

18.6%

MIN By 1-7 points

23.0%

MIN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115
NEW ORLEANS
113
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
108
NEW ORLEANS
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.5 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +22.7% more
New Orleans: 44.0 vs Minnesota: 34.0
Blocks (L5) +24.2% more
Minnesota: 6.1 vs New Orleans: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Minnesota: 42.2% vs New Orleans: 34.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Minnesota: 50.7% vs New Orleans: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 115.0 126
MIN Score 113.0 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 34.1 27.0 / 24.0
Assists 24.9 / 24.2 32.0 / 20.0
Blocks 6.1 / 4.9 13.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 48.1 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 78.0 74.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 44.0 47.0 / 53.0
Steals 9.4 / 9.1 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 14.5 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NO
MIN
NO
ML
54% 63-53
62% 98-61
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 67-49
68% 107-51-1
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
75% 119-40
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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