Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ 76ers MIL @ PHI

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

32-49  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 6:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

44-37  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
76ERS
0%
BUCKS --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Philadelphia)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

27.4%

76ers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

MIL By 1-7 points

16.9%

MIL By 8-14 points

6.8%

PHI By 1-7 points

26.8%

PHI By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105
MILWAUKEE
111
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
112
MILWAUKEE
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 76ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 76ers (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.5 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MIL @ PHI 106 - 126
Jan 27, 2026 MIL @ PHI 122 - 139
Dec 5, 2025 PHI @ MIL 116 - 101
Nov 20, 2025 PHI @ MIL 123 - 114
Apr 3, 2025 MIL @ PHI 126 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +62.9% more
Philadelphia: 9.8 vs Milwaukee: 6.0
Rebounding (L5) +22.3% more
Philadelphia: 49.3 vs Milwaukee: 40.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Philadelphia: 79.0% vs Milwaukee: 71.4%
Turnovers (L5) +30.9% more
Milwaukee: 17.3 vs Philadelphia: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 105.0 106
PHI Score 111.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 42.2 39.0 / 28.0
Assists 20.2 / 29.1 28.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.4 / 5.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 49.2 52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 71.4 76.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 49.3 / 40.3 45.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.0 13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 17.3 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
63% 69-40
64% 61-35
48% 45-48
60% 49-32
ATS
65% 71-38
68% 65-31
48% 45-48
60% 49-32
TTL
55% 60-49
55% 53-43
100% 93-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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