DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
53-28 | Road
128
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-19 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
SPURS
0%
NUGGETS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
DEN By 1-7 points
9.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
2.7%
SA By 1-7 points
21.6%
SA By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
115
DENVER
San Antonio
126
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Denver
105
DENVER
San Antonio
120
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.5
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
128 - 118
Apr 4, 2026
SA @ DEN
134 - 136
Mar 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
136 - 131
Nov 28, 2025
SA @ DEN
139 - 136
Apr 2, 2025
SA @ DEN
113 - 106
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Denver: 42.3%
vs
San Antonio: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
115.0
128
SA Score
126.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 42.3
32.0 / 37.0
Assists
30.0 / 31.4
27.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.1
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 52.3
45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
85.4 / 85.7
72.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
47.7 / 48.3
45.0 / 58.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 13.2
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
DEN
SA
DEN
ML
60%
111-73
54%
57-48
58%
61-44
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
107-76-1
63%
65-38-2
58%
61-44
55%
47-39
TTL
74%
134-47-3
54%
56-48-1
100%
105-0
100%
86-0
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