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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

5-9  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 4:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

6-8  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jordan Hicks
STARTING PITCHER

Jordan Hicks

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jordan Hicks None-None 8.10 -- 1.0 1
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
8.10 ERA Ldr 2.70
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
WHITE SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Kansas City KC
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826 ▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +60.1% more
Kansas City: 10.0 vs Chicago: 6.3
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.1
Hits (L5) +31.7% more
Kansas City: 6.2 vs Chicago: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.0 0
KC Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 4.7 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.2 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 6.3 8.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
55% 89-72
49% 81-86
56% 90-70
56% 94-73
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 99-68
58% 93-67
56% 93-74
TTL
58% 90-64-7
58% 96-69-2
54% 83-70-7
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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