COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
6-8 | Road
5
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
8-6 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bradgley Rodriguez
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 1.13 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | None-None | 1.08 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.13
ERA
Ldr 1.08
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
PADRES
0%
ROCKIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Colorado
6
COLORADO
San Diego
7
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.739
OPS
▲
.925
180
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+79.0% more
San Diego: 1.6
vs
Colorado: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.3% more
San Diego: 9.0
vs
Colorado: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+29.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+18.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.0
5
SD Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.0
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.8
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.7
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 12.9
20.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.3
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51%
85-83
60%
97-64
51%
85-82
55%
88-73
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
97-64
55%
92-75
52%
83-78
TTL
51%
82-80-6
60%
93-62-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-78-6
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