Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Orioles SF @ BAL

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

6-8  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

6-7  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Anthony Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Nunez

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 5.25 -- 6.0 6
Anthony Nunez None-None 1.23 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
5.25 ERA Ldr 1.23
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
GIANTS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Orioles Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 SF @ BAL 6 - 3
Aug 31, 2025 BAL @ SF 2 - 13
Aug 30, 2025 BAL @ SF 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.706
OPS
▲ .711
178
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +11.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Strikeouts (L5) +8.6% more
Baltimore: 8.4 vs San Francisco: 7.7
Runs per Game (Season) +8.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.0 2
BAL Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 10.2 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.7 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 16.8 17.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SF
BAL
SF
ML
53% 83-73
49% 79-81
57% 90-69
53% 85-75
ATS
61% 95-60-1
62% 100-60
57% 90-68-1
52% 83-77
TTL
54% 81-70-5
55% 82-68-10
51% 78-75-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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