MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
8-6 | Road
1
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
5-9 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Anderson
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Drew Anderson | None-None | 4.66 | -- | 3.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50 Ldr
ERA
4.66
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
TIGERS
0%
MARLINS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MIA @ DET
2 - 8
Apr 11, 2026
MIA @ DET
1 - 6
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ DET
0 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
DET @ MIA
2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025
DET @ MIA
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.727
▲
OPS
.720
168
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.8% more
Detroit: 3.9
vs
Miami: 3.2
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Detroit: 0.5
vs
Miami: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+8.0% more
Detroit: 7.8
vs
Miami: 7.2
Home Runs (Season)
+7.7% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.0
1
DET Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.2
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.3
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 11.4
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIA
DET
MIA
ML
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
54%
87-73
55%
88-72
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
91-71
57%
91-69
54%
86-74
TTL
46%
69-81-9
56%
88-69-5
46%
69-81-10
53%
82-73-5
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