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FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

37-38-4  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

32-33-14  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Steven Lorentz
GOALTENDER

Steven Lorentz

#18 | C
@
William Villeneuve
GOALTENDER

William Villeneuve

#76 | D
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Steven Lorentz None-None -- -- --
William Villeneuve None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PANTHERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PanthersFLA (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

FLA By 1 goal

19.7%

FLA By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
FLORIDA
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
FLORIDA
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 FLA @ TOR 6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TOR @ FLA 1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026 FLA @ TOR 1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025 TOR @ FLA 4 - 1
May 18, 2025 FLA @ TOR 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +19.5% more
Florida: 25.8 vs Toronto: 20.8
Faceoff % (L5) +4.1%
Florida: 56.9% vs Toronto: 52.8%
Blocked Shots (L5) +203.3% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs Florida: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 3.0 6
TOR Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
48%MONEY52%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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