Home / NHL Projections NHL / Golden Knights @ Avalanche VGK @ COL

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

36-26-17  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

52-16-10  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Carter Hart
GOALTENDER

Carter Hart

#79 | Goaltender
@
Mackenzie Blackwood
GOALTENDER

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Carter Hart None-None 1.96 0.938 --
Mackenzie Blackwood None-None 2.94 0.897 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.96 Ldr GAA 2.94
0.938 Ldr Save % 0.897
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
AVALANCHE
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AVALANCHE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

30.9%

Avalanche Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

VGK By 1 goal

12.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

9.3%

COL By 1 goal

19.7%

COL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
2
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
VEGAS
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Avalanche Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Avalanche Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Avalanche (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Avalanche (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 26, 2026 COL @ VGK 1 - 2
May 24, 2026 COL @ VGK 3 - 5
May 22, 2026 VGK @ COL 3 - 1
May 20, 2026 VGK @ COL 4 - 2
Apr 11, 2026 VGK @ COL 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.3% more
Colorado: 30.8 vs Vegas: 26.9
Hits (L5) +36.6% more
Vegas: 21.7 vs Colorado: 13.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +32.3% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Colorado: 9.8
Takeaways (L5) +23.3% more
Vegas: 5.0 vs Colorado: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 3
COL Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
82%MONEY18%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
VGK
COL
VGK
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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