MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
47-33 | Road
136
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
51-29 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
ROCKETS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIN By 1-7 points
15.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
5.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
104
MINNESOTA
Houston
111
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
107
MINNESOTA
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u226.5
Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u226.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIN @ HOU
136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026
HOU @ MIN
108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026
MIN @ HOU
105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025
MIN @ HOU
115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025
HOU @ MIN
114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+27.7% more
Houston: 49.2
vs
Minnesota: 38.5
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Houston: 26.3
vs
Minnesota: 23.9
Blocks (L5)
+34.2% more
Minnesota: 5.6
vs
Houston: 3.7
Steals (L5)
+20.4% more
Minnesota: 10.5
vs
Houston: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
104.0
136
HOU Score
111.0
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 38.3
21.0 / 50.0
Assists
26.3 / 23.9
29.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.7 / 5.6
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 47.6
61.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 82.1
79.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
49.2 / 38.5
39.0 / 25.0
Steals
8.4 / 10.5
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 16.4
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
61%
69-44
54%
63-53
59%
51-35
54%
50-43
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
67-49
59%
51-35
54%
50-43
TTL
51%
58-55
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
Adam Fox Quietly Dominating as Rangers Surge Early in 2026-27