PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
43-37 | Road
105
INDIANA
PACERSIND
19-61 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
0%
PACERS
100%
76ERS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
PHI By 1-7 points
27.4%
PHI By 8-14 points
21.6%
IND By 1-7 points
20.1%
IND By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
121
PHILADELPHIA
Indiana
117
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
112
PHILADELPHIA
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
76ers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
PHI @ IND
105 - 94
Feb 24, 2026
PHI @ IND
135 - 114
Jan 19, 2026
IND @ PHI
104 - 113
Dec 12, 2025
IND @ PHI
105 - 115
Mar 14, 2025
IND @ PHI
112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
Philadelphia: 5.5
vs
Indiana: 3.0
Steals (L5)
+15.6% more
Philadelphia: 8.2
vs
Indiana: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+57.7% more
Indiana: 34.4
vs
Philadelphia: 21.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Indiana: 49.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 45.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
121.0
105
IND Score
117.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 34.0
28.0 / 17.0
Assists
34.4 / 21.8
25.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.5
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 45.1
38.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 76.5
88.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
48.3 / 44.9
52.0 / 58.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.2
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 14.0
18.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
PHI
IND
PHI
ML
48%
47-50
63%
69-40
54%
45-38
48%
45-48
ATS
59%
57-40
65%
71-38
54%
45-38
48%
45-48
TTL
54%
52-45
55%
60-49
100%
83-0
100%
93-0
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