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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

8-5  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

4-9  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Javier Sanoja
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Sanoja

#8 | Third Base
@
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Sanoja None-None -- -- -- --
Kenley Jansen None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
MARLINS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

40.1%

Tigers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MIAMI
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MIA @ DET 2 - 8
Apr 11, 2026 MIA @ DET 1 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 MIA @ DET 0 - 2
Sep 14, 2025 DET @ MIA 2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 DET @ MIA 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.727 ▲
OPS
.720
168
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +13.5% more
Detroit: 4.9 vs Miami: 4.3
Home Runs (Season) +7.7% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5) +69.0% more
Miami: 1.3 vs Detroit: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Miami: 0.6 vs Detroit: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.0 0
DET Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 9.8 8.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.0 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 14.6 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.9 / 4.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIA
DET
MIA
ML
54% 86-73
48% 78-84
54% 87-73
55% 88-72
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 91-71
57% 91-69
54% 86-74
TTL
46% 69-81-9
56% 88-69-5
46% 69-81-10
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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