Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Orioles SF @ BAL

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

5-8  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 7:15 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

6-6  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Albert Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Albert Suarez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
JT Brubaker None-None 3.68 -- 0.2 1
Albert Suarez None-None 1.80 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.68 ERA Ldr 1.80
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
GIANTS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Orioles Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 SF @ BAL 6 - 3
Aug 31, 2025 BAL @ SF 2 - 13
Aug 30, 2025 BAL @ SF 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.706
OPS
▲ .711
178
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +71.0% more
Baltimore: 1.2 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +13.0% more
Baltimore: 0.5 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +11.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Strikeouts (L5) +11.5% more
Baltimore: 9.5 vs San Francisco: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.0 6
BAL Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.2 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.5 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 13.7 15.0 / 23.0
Walks 4.4 / 4.3 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SF
BAL
SF
ML
53% 83-73
49% 79-81
57% 90-69
53% 85-75
ATS
61% 95-60-1
62% 100-60
57% 90-68-1
52% 83-77
TTL
54% 81-70-5
55% 82-68-10
51% 78-75-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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