Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Warriors LAL @ GS

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

50-29  |  Road

119
FINAL
Thu, Apr 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

37-42  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
LAKERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

69.1%

Warriors Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

23.0%

GS By 1-7 points

18.6%

GS By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106
LOS ANGELES
101
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
113
LOS ANGELES
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u221.5 Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim u221.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Los Angeles: 48.5% vs Golden State: 46.9%
Steals (L5) +18.5% more
Golden State: 8.9 vs Los Angeles: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.5%
Golden State: 82.7% vs Los Angeles: 68.2%
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Golden State: 4.0 vs Los Angeles: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 106.0 119
GS Score 101.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 32.8 30.0 / 55.0
Assists 28.8 / 27.2 24.0 / 37.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.6 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 48.5 51.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 82.7 / 68.2 100.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 41.6 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.5 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 15.0 19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
LAL
GS
LAL
ML
55% 95-79
61% 68-43
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 101-73
61% 67-43-1
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
TTL
77% 134-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 84-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Marcus Smart Reveals Why Lakers Let Him Walk: 'They Wanted to Go…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Opens Up About Heartbreaking Season Away From His Da…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 3 hours, 49 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 9 hours, 45 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 9 hours, 48 minutes ago