Home / NHL Projections NHL / Maple Leafs @ Islanders TOR @ NYI

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

32-32-14  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Apr 9 • 6:45 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

42-31-5  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Artur Akhtyamov
GOALTENDER

Artur Akhtyamov

#70 | G
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Artur Akhtyamov None-None 5.32 0.886 --
Ilya Sorokin None-None 3.02 0.813 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.32 GAA Ldr 3.02
0.886 Ldr Save % 0.813
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
ISLANDERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Islanders Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

NYI By 1 goal

12.1%

NYI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Islanders (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Islanders (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 NYI @ TOR 1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026 NYI @ TOR 3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025 TOR @ NYI 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +55.4% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs New York: 12.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.1% more
Toronto: 26.1 vs New York: 22.4
Hits (L5) +9.8% more
New York: 22.7 vs Toronto: 20.7
Faceoff % (L5) +5.1%
New York: 57.9% vs Toronto: 52.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 3
NYI Score 2.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
64%MONEY36%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
TOR
NYI
TOR
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 2-0-1
100% 4-0
100% 2-0-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
yardbarker 2 hours, 1 minute ago
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 7 hours, 43 minutes ago
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 7 hours, 45 minutes ago
Nashville Predators' Early Season: Three Burning Questions After…
tennessean 13 hours, 41 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 13 hours, 45 minutes ago