KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
5-6 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
7-5 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Tolbert
#2 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Tolbert | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
ROYALS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
2
KANSAS CITY
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718
▲
OPS
.696
170
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.8% more
Cleveland: 11.0
vs
Kansas City: 8.5
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+27.4% more
Kansas City: 1.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+17.9% more
Kansas City: 11.2
vs
Cleveland: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
2.0
2
CLE Score
3.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.7 / 6.7
16.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 8.5
14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 11.2
26.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54%
87-74
55%
89-72
49%
80-82
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
90-64-7
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-70-7
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