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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

39-30-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

32-31-14  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Anthony Stolarz None-None 0.00 1.000 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 GAA 0.00
1.000 Save % 1.000
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
CAPITALS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Capitals (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 WSH @ TOR 4 - 0
Dec 18, 2025 TOR @ WSH 0 - 4
Nov 28, 2025 TOR @ WSH 2 - 4
Dec 28, 2024 WSH @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 6, 2024 WSH @ TOR 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +15.5% more
Washington: 5.9 vs Toronto: 5.0
Power Play % (L5) +12.6%
Washington: 13.9% vs Toronto: 1.3%
Shots on Goal (L5) +9.9% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Toronto: 26.1
Blocked Shots (L5) +65.3% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs Washington: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 4
TOR Score 2.0 0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
50%MONEY50%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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