MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
46-32 | Road
124
INDIANA
PACERSIND
18-60 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
PACERS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIN By 8-14 points
18.6%
IND By 1-7 points
23.0%
IND By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Minnesota
109
MINNESOTA
Indiana
116
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
MIN @ IND
124 - 104
Oct 26, 2025
IND @ MIN
110 - 114
Oct 7, 2025
IND @ MIN
135 - 134
Mar 24, 2025
MIN @ IND
103 - 119
Mar 17, 2025
IND @ MIN
132 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.5% more
Minnesota: 5.3
vs
Indiana: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+16.9% more
Minnesota: 14.9
vs
Indiana: 12.4
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Minnesota: 8.2
vs
Indiana: 7.1
Assists (L5)
+39.5% more
Indiana: 33.2
vs
Minnesota: 23.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
112.0
124
IND Score
110.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.6 / 34.9
35.0 / 41.0
Assists
33.2 / 23.8
24.0 / 27.0
Blocks
2.5 / 5.3
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 43.5
48.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 73.2
81.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 42.4
34.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.2
11.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 14.9
23.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIN
IND
MIN
ML
48%
47-50
54%
63-53
54%
45-38
54%
50-43
ATS
59%
57-40
58%
67-49
54%
45-38
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
52-45
63%
72-43-1
100%
83-0
100%
93-0
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