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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

5-5  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

6-5  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 1.69 -- 1.1 1
Cade Smith None-None 6.43 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 Ldr ERA 6.43
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
GUARDIANS
0%
ROYALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
KANSAS CITY
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718 ▲
OPS
.696
170 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +54.8% more
Kansas City: 5.2 vs Cleveland: 2.4
Hits (L5) +52.6% more
Kansas City: 9.5 vs Cleveland: 4.5
Total Bases (L5) +37.2% more
Kansas City: 14.8 vs Cleveland: 9.3
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Kansas City: 0.2 vs Cleveland: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.0 1
CLE Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 4.5 / 9.5 8.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.8 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.3 / 14.8 9.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.4 / 5.2 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54% 87-74
55% 89-72
49% 80-82
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
TTL
55% 88-71-2
58% 90-64-7
43% 69-90-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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